Tag Archives: revenues

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Getting Started With Financial Projections

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Whether you are starting a new business, expanding or scaling an existing venture, or searching for investors, creating realistic financial projections is a vital component of the process. You’ll rely on those projections to make informed decisions as you execute the plans for your business. It’s imperative that you have a very good idea of the amount of money you’ll need to move forward with your intentions and how much money you can expect to earn as a result—-and also about when the expected revenues will arrive.

So, what is involved and where can you begin when your goal is to create financial projections for your business? The answer is—- surprise!—-do some homework first. Below are factors to research and help yourself create financial projections that help define the path to success that will work for your organization.

Your financial projections will be detailed in the basic financial documents—the Profit & Loss (Income) Statement, the Balance Sheet and the Cash-flow Statement. The Break-Even Statement will help you predict how much revenue the venture must generate to break even in terms of revenues versus expenses and when that’s likely to occur.

Something to keep in mind when you contemplate the need for financial projections is the distinction between projecting versus budgeting. Think of financial projections as a prediction, and budgeting as your plan. When you do a financial projection, you see what direction your business is headed in, based on past performance and other factors and use that to anticipate the future.

When you create a budget, you plan how you’re going to spend money based on what you expect your finances to look like in the future (your projections).

How big is your target market?

Start-up costs

This is the beginning in terms of your research and big question to answer. Understanding how to build a profitable business starts with determining the size and revenue (sales) potential of your market; if there aren’t enough buyers available, you’ll be unable to succeed. Most industry associations publish research regarding the size of their industry. Identifying three or four close competitors is also useful. Competition is a good sign, confirming that there is money to be made. You need to understand the annual sales volume expectations of your venture.

Expenses are much easier to predict than revenues. Start building your forecast model by outlining your fixed expenses, meaning rent, utilities and insurance. Next, consider the variable expenses, such as salaries, cost of goods sold (or the estimated value of the time it takes you to produce the service you offer). Business permits, required certifications and a marketing budget, for example, are other variable expenses to account for.

Also factor into your start-up costs your best estimate of site buildout and/or necessary equipment—coffee making machines, cash registers, computers, printers, online booking software, online payment or mobile payment plan, desks and chairs—in your financial projections.

Revenue projection

Thinking about how much revenue the venture will be able to generate, i.e., creating a sales forecast, attempts to predict what your monthly sales will be for up to 18 months after launching your business. Start-ups can make their predictions using industry trends, market analysis demonstrating the population of potential customers and consumer trends.

A pricing strategy is an integral component of a revenue projection. Research average industry pricing to ensure your prices are reasonable. Start by identifying the top players in your market. Then visit their locations or websites to determine how they price their products and services.

Cash-flow

A cash flow statement (or projection, for a new business) shows the flow of dollars moving in and out of the business. This is based on the sales forecast, your balance sheet and other assumptions you’ve used to create your expenses projection. If you are starting a new business and do not have these historical financial statements, you start by projecting a cash-flow statement broken down into 12 months.

Identify your assumptions

Any forecast requires you to make assumptions about possibilities that are outside of your control. The best way to manage these assumptions and avoid subconscious bias is by explicitly identifying and documenting them in writing.

The assumptions you should list include how much the market will grow or shrink, based on your research about the industry and local or national economy, changes in the number or activity of your principle competitors and/or technological advancements that will impact your business.

Break-even point

Together, your expenses budget and sales forecast paints a picture of your profitability. Your break-even projection is the date at which you believe your business will become profitable — when more money is earned than spent. Very few businesses are profitable in their first year. Most businesses take two to three years to become profitable. The Break-Even Statement will help you consider and plan for how long and how much revenue the venture must generate to break even in terms of revenues versus expenses and position the business for profitability. In other words, you’ll map out the scenario of pulling the business out of the red and into the black.

Thanks for reading,

Kim

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Cash-Flow Therapy

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So many businesses in the U.S. are undercapitalized; insufficient cash-flow is a factor in the demise of many ventures that might otherwise succeed.  Cash is king, it is often said, and the wise business owner will do what is necessary to maintain adequate cash-flow in his/her organization.

Make friends with the basic three financial documents and learn to use them as analytical tools.  They exist to enable your success and they will signal you when corrective action must be taken.

Monitor the top line of your company’s Income Statement (sales revenue/ billable hours).  Observe the ebb and flow of the accounts receivable (who owes your business money) and payable (to whom you owe money) on your Balance Sheet.  Make note of the beginning and ending cash balances on your Cash-Flow Statement.  Also on the Cash-Flow Statement, notice the cash sales (representing billable hours payments received as checks, for example) and the operating expenses.

Seasonal variations in billable hours/ sales can potentially exacerbate cash-flow problems if that is an issue in your business (the Christmas to New Year’s slowdown, for example) and pop-up emergency expenses can do the same.  Unfortunately, the outcome for Freelance consultants or other business owners can be a cash deficit, an especially unwelcome state of affairs in a month that involves holiday expenses.

But the primary cause of cash-flow woes is usually a result of persistently insufficient billable hours for services rendered or product sales, perhaps secondary to an anemic client list.

Former Wall Street Journal Assistant Editor Serenity Gibbons points out that if you  struggle to generate enough at the top line, you’re probably facing one of the following challenges:

  • The optimum target clients have not been reached by your marketing campaigns, or the message doesn’t address their priorities or aspirations.
  • The product/ service has limited value to the target clients, or your offerings are overwhelmed by dominant competitors.
  • The product/ service is perceived as too expensive for the value delivered.

It’s time to take control and consider what can be done over the short and long-term to correct the problem.  Do some homework and discover the basic challenges, concerns and goals (as defined by their respective industries) that would motivate your prospective clients and guide their decisions.  Determine why they’re doing business with your competitors and not you.  Moreover, make sure that you are pursuing the best target markets for your products/ services.

A second issue is an administrative one that plagues many Freelancers—-we fail to invoice in a timely and regularly scheduled fashion.  Help your clients to take you seriously and treat you like a “real” business by invoicing when promised. Take measures to improve the odds of getting paid on time and in full.  I’ve lived through this challenge and can report that with a small amount of discipline, it can be overcome.

Third, watch your operating (fixed) and sales related (variable) expenses.  How much are you spending to generate sales revenues/ billable hours? Limit what must get dropped into accounts payable and expand what drops into accounts receivable.

There are usually ways to stem the tide of cash-flow problems, that is, if you take action early enough.  You might start with revisiting your pricing strategy.  Ensure that your pricing reflects the value of your product/ service; that your prices are comparable to what competitors in your area charge for similar services/ products; and that you charge close to the maximum of what clients expect to pay for what you offer. Do some in-depth pricing research, using GSA MOBIS, the federal contract system, as a benchmark.  http://gsa.federalschedules.com/industries/gsa-mobis-consulting-pss-874/

Another useful tactic that serves as a band-aid for cash-flow glitches that are more inconvenient than problematic is your business credit line.  While you’re still able to pay bills on time and have a respectable credit score, investigate obtaining a business credit card through your bank.

Resist the temptation to charge business expenses to your personal credit cards!  Keep business and personal expenses separate and get your arms around the spending in each sector.  Furthermore, a business credit card usually has a much higher credit limit than a personal line and that allows you to more easily make investments in your business and earn cash back and points as you do.

Finally, if inflated business expenses, whether fixed or variable, play a major role in your cash-flow problems, then you will have some decisions to make (re: the selling expenses) and negotiating to do (re: the operating).  If you regularly pay on time expenses for inventory purchases, credit cards, or insurance, for example, get on the phone and ask for lower interest rates or a lower premium.  If variable expenses seem high, reconsider how much you must spend on marketing, advertising, sales and client entertaining.

Thanks for reading,

Kim

Photograph: Baccarat at the Sands Hotel in Las Vegas, NV, with Frank Sinatra (in black tie) as the card dealer (1959)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Thanks for reading,

Kim

Photograph: Baccarat at the Sands Hotel in Las Vegas, NV with Frank Sinatra (in bow tie) dealing the cards (1959)