Step right up folks. Welcome to the bear market. Wasn’t this the party you were looking for? Probably not. But the bear market bus has left the station and you have no choice but to hang on for the ride. Get used to it—bear markets are stubborn. The bear market known as the Great Depression technically lasted for 3 years (1929-1932). The Dot.com Bubble bear market lasted 2 years (2000-2002).

However, the negative effects of bear markets—-high unemployment, inflation (higher prices paid for essential items) and downward pressure on business revenue (resulting from lower disposal income that limits discretionary purchases and higher interest rates on business loans)—-usually doubles the real-time negative effects of bear markets on the population.

So what is a bear market anyway? Economists declare a bear market when there are sustained declines of 20% or more in (recent) prices of stocks, bonds, mutual funds and commodities across several market indexes and exchanges —Standard & Poor”s (S&P 500), Moody’s, the New York Stock Exchange (Wall Street) , NASDAQ, and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange are among the well-known economic benchmark sources. Bear markets usually occur in tandem with a weak economy.

You may notice that stock and other securities prices demonstrate investor confidence and optimism. The high prices typical of a bull market, polar opposite of the bear market, indicate an expectation that big institutional investors are expecting growth and expansion of the economy. But in a bear market, it’s all about avoiding risk and conserving cash.

So, too, for Freelancers. Pulling back and going on the defense is the smartest bear market strategy. Conserve cash by trimming expenses that do not demonstrably contribute to customer acquisition, customer retention and the customer experience. Manage expenses to preserve your cash-flow. If you are able to save money on a regular basis, so much the better, so that you’ll have funds available to cover business and living expenses if revenues take a serious dip,

Be very cautious about plans to grow, expand, or scale your business and remember that business expansion costs money, a resource that is more expensive to obtain during high-interest bear markets. You can go out of business in a blink if you start drinking from the fire hose and expand too much and too fast.

You can run out of money because you can’t bring in customers fast enough to cover operating expenses. You can also be caught off guard by factors outside of your control—-like a pandemic lockdowns, a boat turned sideways in the Suez Canal, another war or assassination—- that deflates your once/ reasonable sales projections.

Furthermore, customer acquisition and retention are usually more difficult to sustain when disposable income drops and potential customers pull back on spending. Still, with the right strategy you might make money, or at least avoid big losses. Below are actions to help you minimize the bite of the bear.

1. Open a cash reserve account and aim to deposit 5%-10% of weekly net revenues. If you encounter ether an emergency or an opportunity, you will have waiting for you an interest-free line of credit, so to speak, to carry you through an unexpected cash-flow glitch.
2. If you sell products rather than services, find back-up supply chain resources so that your shelves will remain stocked even if your usual supplier experiences delays. You must have products to sell when customers want to buy.
3. Be cautious about plans to expand your venture, unless trustworthy research shows the ROI the time and money required.
4. Cut excess operating (selling, general & administrative) expenses.
5. Boost AOV (average order value) by bundling products together to increase sales revenue. Make it attractive to buy from you.
6. Minimize or eliminate perks —-offsite retreats, meals, travel and the like—- unless you’re spending on customer acquisition or productivity-enhancing skills development.
7. Raise prices in response to the impact of inflation on the rising cost of goods sold, to maintain profit margins.
8. Consider investing in long-term opportunities or capital improvements that might now be discounted significantly. Who knows, if the financial prospects are good, maybe you can buy out a competitor who has good market share, but doesn’t have the money to overcome the bear market—/and you do.
9. Focus marketing in the top three performing channels only and drop those that don’t add much to your sales/ mart pipeline.
10. Use cash-flow and higher operating margins( (obtained by raising prices) to provide the working capital you need. Remember that the interest you pay on borrowed money from your bank is now higher with rising interest rates.

Thanks for reading,

Kim

Image: © The New York Times The Bear struts his stuff in the Boston Ballet production of The Nutcracker.