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Getting Started With Financial Projections

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Whether you are starting a new business, expanding or scaling an existing venture, or searching for investors, creating realistic financial projections is a vital component of the process. You’ll rely on those projections to make informed decisions as you execute the plans for your business. It’s imperative that you have a very good idea of the amount of money you’ll need to move forward with your intentions and how much money you can expect to earn as a result—-and also about when the expected revenues will arrive.

So, what is involved and where can you begin when your goal is to create financial projections for your business? The answer is—- surprise!—-do some homework first. Below are factors to research and help yourself create financial projections that help define the path to success that will work for your organization.

Your financial projections will be detailed in the basic financial documents—the Profit & Loss (Income) Statement, the Balance Sheet and the Cash-flow Statement. The Break-Even Statement will help you predict how much revenue the venture must generate to break even in terms of revenues versus expenses and when that’s likely to occur.

Something to keep in mind when you contemplate the need for financial projections is the distinction between projecting versus budgeting. Think of financial projections as a prediction, and budgeting as your plan. When you do a financial projection, you see what direction your business is headed in, based on past performance and other factors and use that to anticipate the future.

When you create a budget, you plan how you’re going to spend money based on what you expect your finances to look like in the future (your projections).

How big is your target market?

Start-up costs

This is the beginning in terms of your research and big question to answer. Understanding how to build a profitable business starts with determining the size and revenue (sales) potential of your market; if there aren’t enough buyers available, you’ll be unable to succeed. Most industry associations publish research regarding the size of their industry. Identifying three or four close competitors is also useful. Competition is a good sign, confirming that there is money to be made. You need to understand the annual sales volume expectations of your venture.

Expenses are much easier to predict than revenues. Start building your forecast model by outlining your fixed expenses, meaning rent, utilities and insurance. Next, consider the variable expenses, such as salaries, cost of goods sold (or the estimated value of the time it takes you to produce the service you offer). Business permits, required certifications and a marketing budget, for example, are other variable expenses to account for.

Also factor into your start-up costs your best estimate of site buildout and/or necessary equipment—coffee making machines, cash registers, computers, printers, online booking software, online payment or mobile payment plan, desks and chairs—in your financial projections.

Revenue projection

Thinking about how much revenue the venture will be able to generate, i.e., creating a sales forecast, attempts to predict what your monthly sales will be for up to 18 months after launching your business. Start-ups can make their predictions using industry trends, market analysis demonstrating the population of potential customers and consumer trends.

A pricing strategy is an integral component of a revenue projection. Research average industry pricing to ensure your prices are reasonable. Start by identifying the top players in your market. Then visit their locations or websites to determine how they price their products and services.

Cash-flow

A cash flow statement (or projection, for a new business) shows the flow of dollars moving in and out of the business. This is based on the sales forecast, your balance sheet and other assumptions you’ve used to create your expenses projection. If you are starting a new business and do not have these historical financial statements, you start by projecting a cash-flow statement broken down into 12 months.

Identify your assumptions

Any forecast requires you to make assumptions about possibilities that are outside of your control. The best way to manage these assumptions and avoid subconscious bias is by explicitly identifying and documenting them in writing.

The assumptions you should list include how much the market will grow or shrink, based on your research about the industry and local or national economy, changes in the number or activity of your principle competitors and/or technological advancements that will impact your business.

Break-even point

Together, your expenses budget and sales forecast paints a picture of your profitability. Your break-even projection is the date at which you believe your business will become profitable — when more money is earned than spent. Very few businesses are profitable in their first year. Most businesses take two to three years to become profitable. The Break-Even Statement will help you consider and plan for how long and how much revenue the venture must generate to break even in terms of revenues versus expenses and position the business for profitability. In other words, you’ll map out the scenario of pulling the business out of the red and into the black.

Thanks for reading,

Kim

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Understanding Break-Even Financial Analysis

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Most business owners are familiar with the big three financial control documents: the Income (Profit & Loss) Statement; Cash-Flow Statement (or projection, when used for budget planning); and Balance Sheet. Those three statements are compiled monthly, quarterly and annually. They give useful insight into the fiscal health of the company. The smart business owner consults these statements each month, teases out the story that is revealed and makes decisions accordingly.

A fourth financial document, the Break-Even Analysis, provides forecasting information. The Break-Even is used when a new product or service will be introduced, or when a capital improvement or other upgrade is scheduled to be made.  The Break-Even indicates the amount of sales revenue the product or service must generate to cover the roll-out costs associated with its introduction or acquisition and therefore, positioned to become a decision that pays off.  A Break-Even is also generated when a new business venture is launched. The Break-Even allows the business leader to predict how long losses must be sustained and how to anticipate cash-flow comditions and management in response.

Break-Even is achieved when revenues = expenses; the business is neither making nor losing money. Business expenses are of two types, Fixed and Variable. Fixed Costs are the standard monthly operating costs and they are not impacted by sales revenue generated.  Office space rent, insurance, utilities and payroll are Fixed Costs.

Variable Costs are largely tied to sales: product acquisition or manufacturing costs, inventory purchases, the cost of materials used to manufacture the products sold and all aspects of marketing and selling costs.  As sales increase, Variable Costs increase proportionately, because more product must be purchased or manufactured to be available for sale.  Total Expenses = Fixed + Variable Costs, as recorded on the Income Statement.

When calculating expenses, it is standard to determine the relationship of Variable Costs to sales revenues.  The Variable Cost amount is divided by the number of product units sold,  yielding the Variable Cost per Unit.  In other words,  Variable Costs = units sold  X  variable cost per unit.  For the purpose of calculating Break-Even,  Total Expenses = Fixed Costs + Variable Costs (expressed as units sold  X  variable cost per unit). As always, sales revenues = unit price  X  number of units sold.

The Break-Even Point is reached when

Price  X  Units Sold = (Units  Sold  X  Variable Cost/Unit) + Fixed Costs

The difference between selling price per unit and the variable cost per unit sold reveals the amount that can be applied to Fixed Costs each time a unit is sold.  Think of it this way: if monthly Fixed Costs are $2000 and the average price of your product units sold is $2, with an average Variable Cost of $1 each,  when you sell a unit, you earn $1 to apply to Fixed Costs. With monthly Fixed Costs of $2000, Break-Even is reached when the business sells 2000 units per month.

Knowing how many units must be sold each month to achieve Break-Even is essential for effective financial management of the venture.  One can also calculate Break-Even in terms of dollars that must be generated each month.  In this example, Break-Even Revenue is achieved at $4000 in monthly sales, since the sales price is $2/unit and 2000 units must be sold each month to cover expenses.

A basic knowledge of the process of business financial calculations and the ability to interpret the data generated are must-have skills for all business owners and Freelance consultants. While it is true that one’s bookkeeper or accountant will perform the Break-Even on Quickbooks by plugging in numbers derived from the Income Statement,  it is always in your best interest to understand how the calculations are made and how to make sense of what the financial documents reveal.

When it is proposed that a new product or service might be sold, which might be the development of a new workshop to propose and teach or some other intangible service, a Break-Even Analysis will indicate how many units must be sold, billable hours generated, or classes must be taught before the production costs will be re-couped and the new offering will be positioned to generate ROI.

Thanks for reading,

Kim

 

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The Break-Even Analysis: Find the Pricing Sweet Spot

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To continue the topic of pricing,  in this case pricing a new product or service,  it is a must to know when fixed costs will be covered by unit sales at a given price and determine when in time the item or service breaks into profitability.  Performing a break-even analysis will reveal how many units must be sold,  or how many times the workshop must be delivered,  at a given price,  before production costs are behind you.  Integral to that question is unit selling price.  Costs are recouped faster when selling at $100.00 rather than $50.00.  Also related to pricing is what customers expect and agree to pay.  Appropriate pricing can increase profits faster than increasing sales volume.  One can sell fewer items and make more money per item.  Conducting a break-even analysis is Step 1 in locating your ideal price range.  Here’s the Break Even Volume (BEV) formula:

Fixed costs                                                      Fixed costs

BEV     = ______________________________        =         __________

Revenue per unit – Variable cost per unit                         Unit margin

Let’s add some numbers to the formula and assume that the fixed costs associated with delivery of your service is $5, 500.00: $1,700.00 went to the graphic artist for Power Point slides; $1,300.00 paid to the wordsmithing wizard for marketing collaterals used for promoting the service; and $2,500.00 for the wholesale value of your labor,  the time you spent crafting the intangible service.  These costs are fixed because they will not change,  no matter how many times the service will be delivered.  Variable costs associated with service delivery would be printing hand-outs for participants ($50.00) and the advertisement placed in an industry newsletter read by the target audience ($400.00),  meaning that the unit variable cost =$450.00.  If the service is priced at $750.00,  the profit,  or unit margin,  is $300.00 each time the service is delivered at that price.

$5,500.00

BEV     =        _________     =   18.33

$300.00/unit

At a per unit price of $750.00,  the service must be delivered 18+ times before a profit will be made.  From there,  a series of  “what if”  scenarios can be floated.  Chiefly,  what are competitors charging or is there a spike in demand that makes the product more valuable and can you increase the price?  Also,  can you lower fixed costs and obtain graphics services for a couple of hundred dollars less?  What if the marketing collaterals text was produced in-house by you and not outsourced?  How much will that increase the price of the time you spent developing the service,  another fixed cost?

Let’s say that you find graphics services for $1,500.00 and ask a marketing communications wizard to edit text that you write yourself for $800.00 (your personal labor increases: 6 hours writing at $50.00/hour = $300.00 + $2,500.00 = $2, 800.00).  Now,  the fixed cost is $5,100.00 and you think that $950.00 is a price that clients just might accept.  The variable costs will remain unchanged at $450.00,  because your printer is good,  his price is right and you’ll definitely need to advertise since you may want to charge more for the service.  At a unit price of $950.00,  the unit margin would be $500.00.   As shown,  by raising the price of the service by $200.00,  fixed costs are covered by delivering the goods 10+ times,  rather than 18+ times.

$5,100.00

BEV=             ________      =   10.2

$500.00/unit

As you can see,  the impact of other values such as increased advertising or higher quality materials or labor,  can also be assessed for impact on the pricing sweet spot and timeline for reaching BEV.  When bringing a new product or service to market,  take steps to identify the ideal pricing structure.

It is also useful to calculate the profit margin,  that is the percentage of sales revenues retained after all expenses are paid,  for each product and for the total line.  From the P & L Statement,  divide net profits by total sales revenues  (bottom line divided by top line).

 

Thanks for reading,

Kim

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Starting A Business? Consider Your Financials Part III

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Investors and lenders require significant demonstration of your ability to repay money that will be extended to your business.  Lenders will want to know when  your business can be expected to  make a profit,  so they can be shown in yet another way that you will have the ability to repay the  loan.  Investors will want to know when they can expect some ROI.

Both groups will also want to know the rationale for your financial calculations and for what purposes loan and investment capital will be utilized.  The following three statements will answer those questions.

THE BREAK EVEN ANALYSIS

The point in time when sales revenues generated equal business operating expenses is called the break even point. This is an important calculation for a new business,  perhaps  more so for those who seek funding. The Break Even analysis is also useful for established businesses that will launch a new product or service.

The B-E analysis demonstrates how much product must be sold at a given price for the business to stop losing money.  The business owner can then think about the road to profitability.  Investors will be able to think about getting paid back and eventually receiving their ROI.

Refer to your P & L  2 or 3 year projections and get the data for fixed and variable expenses and  gross revenues. Use an Excel spreadsheet to set up your B-E analysis. You will be able to experiment with different product/service prices to learn how much product must be sold at each price point to bring your business to B-E.  So now you have yet another way to help determine pricing.  Excel will also create graphs for the analyses.

FINANCIAL ASSUMPTIONS

When you have completed each of the five financial statements,  it is customary to explain your rationale for calculating things the way you did.  In a new business so much is an educated guess and in an existing business past performance points the way to the future.

Events beyond your control may occur,  an extreme example being the tanking of Lehman Brothers in September ’08 that set off our global financial crisis.  That ruined a whole lot of financial assumptions, that’s for sure!

Give an overview of the financial picture and then discuss the P & L,  Cash Flow,  Balance Sheet and B-E Analysis.  Let’em know you did your homework.  Explain and defend your decisions.

SUMMARY OF FINANCIAL NEEDS

If you seek funding for your business, then you must document for investors or the bank how you will use their money and when you will need the infusions of cash.

Will you use the loan to finance an expansion of the business? Must you buy new equipment, hire employees, increase advertising expenditures or obtain larger office space? Provide detailed info on the costs associated with making it all happen.

Creating a timetable for the roll-out will make you look very prepared, as will including references to the sections of your plan that discuss these actions.  Be convincing as you discuss how these actions will increase revenue and profits and bring in the money needed to repay the loan on time.

There are categories of financial needs:  Working Capital–money you’ll need to keep the cash flow healthy so you can do business as you should; Growth Capital–money used to expand the business and increase profits; and Equity Capital–money to be used for permanent needs, it is offered to investors who will take a risk and receive a piece of the business or dividends.

Next week we’ll take a look at options for the legal structure of your business.

Kim