Whether you are starting a new business, expanding or scaling an existing venture, or searching for investors, creating realistic financial projections is a vital component of the process. You’ll rely on those projections to make informed decisions as you execute the plans for your business. It’s imperative that you have a very good idea of the amount of money you’ll need to move forward with your intentions and how much money you can expect to earn as a result—-and also about when the expected revenues will arrive.

So, what is involved and where can you begin when your goal is to create financial projections for your business? The answer is—- surprise!—-do some homework first. Below are factors to research and help yourself create financial projections that help define the path to success that will work for your organization.

Your financial projections will be detailed in the basic financial documents—the Profit & Loss (Income) Statement, the Balance Sheet and the Cash-flow Statement. The Break-Even Statement will help you predict how much revenue the venture must generate to break even in terms of revenues versus expenses and when that’s likely to occur.

Something to keep in mind when you contemplate the need for financial projections is the distinction between projecting versus budgeting. Think of financial projections as a prediction, and budgeting as your plan. When you do a financial projection, you see what direction your business is headed in, based on past performance and other factors and use that to anticipate the future.

When you create a budget, you plan how you’re going to spend money based on what you expect your finances to look like in the future (your projections).

How big is your target market?

Start-up costs

This is the beginning in terms of your research and big question to answer. Understanding how to build a profitable business starts with determining the size and revenue (sales) potential of your market; if there aren’t enough buyers available, you’ll be unable to succeed. Most industry associations publish research regarding the size of their industry. Identifying three or four close competitors is also useful. Competition is a good sign, confirming that there is money to be made. You need to understand the annual sales volume expectations of your venture.

Expenses are much easier to predict than revenues. Start building your forecast model by outlining your fixed expenses, meaning rent, utilities and insurance. Next, consider the variable expenses, such as salaries, cost of goods sold (or the estimated value of the time it takes you to produce the service you offer). Business permits, required certifications and a marketing budget, for example, are other variable expenses to account for.

Also factor into your start-up costs your best estimate of site buildout and/or necessary equipment—coffee making machines, cash registers, computers, printers, online booking software, online payment or mobile payment plan, desks and chairs—in your financial projections.

Revenue projection

Thinking about how much revenue the venture will be able to generate, i.e., creating a sales forecast, attempts to predict what your monthly sales will be for up to 18 months after launching your business. Start-ups can make their predictions using industry trends, market analysis demonstrating the population of potential customers and consumer trends.

A pricing strategy is an integral component of a revenue projection. Research average industry pricing to ensure your prices are reasonable. Start by identifying the top players in your market. Then visit their locations or websites to determine how they price their products and services.

Cash-flow

A cash flow statement (or projection, for a new business) shows the flow of dollars moving in and out of the business. This is based on the sales forecast, your balance sheet and other assumptions you’ve used to create your expenses projection. If you are starting a new business and do not have these historical financial statements, you start by projecting a cash-flow statement broken down into 12 months.

Identify your assumptions

Any forecast requires you to make assumptions about possibilities that are outside of your control. The best way to manage these assumptions and avoid subconscious bias is by explicitly identifying and documenting them in writing.

The assumptions you should list include how much the market will grow or shrink, based on your research about the industry and local or national economy, changes in the number or activity of your principle competitors and/or technological advancements that will impact your business.

Break-even point

Together, your expenses budget and sales forecast paints a picture of your profitability. Your break-even projection is the date at which you believe your business will become profitable — when more money is earned than spent. Very few businesses are profitable in their first year. Most businesses take two to three years to become profitable. The Break-Even Statement will help you consider and plan for how long and how much revenue the venture must generate to break even in terms of revenues versus expenses and position the business for profitability. In other words, you’ll map out the scenario of pulling the business out of the red and into the black.

Thanks for reading,

Kim